BEC中级阅读素材

　　BEC中级阅读素材

　　For the markets, rate cuts are like a drug. They can inspire euphoria, but can also induce dependency. Markets, like addicts, need bigger and bigger doses to get the same effect.

　　This has framed the market’s prognosis for the Federal Reserve, which today meets to decide on monetary policy. When it cut by 50 basis points in September, it sparked a huge rally. But cutting by only 25bp in October prompted a relapse, as US stocks fell and credit tightened once more.

　　With Fed governors admitting that the liquidity squeeze had intensified and traders betting on a recession, markets decided that another 50bp cut must be forthcoming. That sparked the latest rally. But that speculation is dimming: futures are pricing a cut of 25bp not 50bp.

　　Why? Central banks sounded hawkish last week. The Bank of England cut the bank rate but warned on inflation, and the European Central Bank, which was on hold, sounded closer to raising rates than cutting them.

　　Most important, however, is employment data. The Fed is mandated to pursue full employment, so bad jobs numbers provide great cover for a big rate cut.

　　Last Friday’s non-farm payrolls did not provide it. The number employed rose by 94,000, compared with forecasts of 80,000. This data refuses to slip into recession territory. The household survey, compiled by polling households rather than companies, even shows jobs growth picking up slightly.

　　Can the Fed rest its diagnosis on this data? Firms tracking the money companies withhold for tax purposes warn that job growth seems to have stopped.

　　But the Fed does not want to induce a dependency culture in the markets, and it does not want to signal that it is scared of a recession. A 25bp cut in the Fed Funds rate, possibly with a steeper cut to the higher discount rate, at which it lends to banks, looks the most likely prescription.

　　对市场而言，降息犹如毒品。它们能让人兴奋，但也能导致依赖。就像瘾君子一样，市场需要越来越大的剂量，才能达到同样的效果。

　　这就为美联储(Fed)圈定了市场可能会有的症状。今天，美联储将开会决定货币政策。当它今年9月降息50个基点时，曾引发市场大幅上扬。但是，由于10月仅降息25个基点，导致市场故态复萌：美国股市下跌，信贷再次紧缩。

　　由于美联储官员承认流动性紧缩有所加剧，交易员猜测会出现经济衰退，因此，市场认为美联储将再次降息50个基点。这引发了最近的上涨。不过，这种猜测正在渐渐降温：期货价格显示市场预计降息25个基点、而非50个基点。

　　为什么呢?各国央行上周听起来还很强硬。英国央行(Bank of England)降低了利率，但发出了通胀警告。按兵不动的欧洲央行(European Central Bank)听起来更像要加息，而不是降息。

　　然而，最重要的是就业数据。美联储受命实现完全就业，因此，糟糕的就业数据可以为大幅降息提供很好的借口。

　　上周五公布的非农就业数据无法提供这个借口。就业人数增加了9.4万人，高于此前预测的8万人。这样的数据显示，经济没有滑入衰退区间。通过调查家庭而非调查企业汇编的家庭调查甚至显示，就业增速还略有上扬。

　　美联储可以依据这个数据做出诊断吗?追踪企业税项拨备的公司警告称，这种就业增长似乎已经停止。

　　不过，美联储并不想在市场上诱导“瘾君子文化”，也不想表现出自己害怕经济衰退。看起来，美联储最可能开具的药方是：联邦基金利率降低25个基点，并可能更大幅度降低其贷款给各银行所依据的较高的贴现率。

　　China overtook the UK as the world's second-biggest destination for venture capital investments last year, in spite of a 27 per cent rise in British early-stage company funding to about ￡1.4bn, a survey revealed yesterday.

　　昨日公布的一项调查显示，尽管去年英国初创企业的融资额增长了27%，达到约14亿英镑，但中国仍取代英国，成为世界第二大风险投资目的国。

　　Library House, the Cambridge-based entrepreneurship research centre, said India was also due to overtake the UK by 2009 if Indian venture capital investments continued to grow at the 90 per cent rate seen in 2006.

　　总部位于剑桥的创业研究中心Library House表示，如果印度的风险资本投资延续2006年90%的增速，到2009年，印度的排名也将超过英国。

　　The report, commissioned by UBS Wealth Management, forecast that UK venture capital could decline to ￡1bn-￡1.2bn this year, equivalent to 2003 levels.

　　这项调查是由瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth Management)委托进行的。调查预计，英国今年的风险资本投资可能降至10亿至12亿英镑，相当于2003年的水平。

　　Fostering an entrepreneurial culture has been one of New Labour's main ambitions and the report will raise concerns that the country is falling behind not only the US but also faster growing Asian economies.

　　培育创业文化一直是“新工党(New Labour)”的宏伟蓝图之一，但此项调查将引发人们担忧英国的创业活动不仅落后于美国，还落后于以更快速度增长的亚洲经济体。

　　By arguing that funding for British start-up companies is being cannibalised by the rise of China and India, the report clashes with claims from British venture capitalists that their sector is recovering strongly.

　　调查报告指出，中国和印度的崛起分流了英国初创企业的资金。这与英国风险投资家所谓该领域正在强劲复苏的说法大相径庭。

　　Venture capital has been overshadowed in recent years by the rapid rise of big leveraged buy-out funds. Haunted by losses suffered after the bursting of the dotcom bubble, venture capitalists in Britain have struggled to escape the idea they make lower returns than their bigger LBO cousins.

　　近年来，大规模杠杆收购基金的快速兴起令风险资本相形见绌。英国风险投资家在互联网泡沫破裂后遭受严重亏损，他们一直未能摆脱人们的这种观念：他们的回报比大型杠杆收购基金低。

　　Roger Franklin, senior analyst at Library House, said extrapolations from venture capital investment levels in the first half of 2007 suggested the UK was on track to see a decline of 10 to 20 per cent this year. This could be a direct result of the rapid growth in Chinese and Indian venture capitalist activity. Chinese VC investments rose by 50 to 60 per cent last year.

　　Library House高级分析师罗杰?弗兰克林(Roger Franklin)表示，从今年上半年的风险资本投资水平推断，英国2007年的风险资本投资可能会减少10%至20%。这可能直接源自中国和印度风险投资活动的快速增长。中国去年的风险资本投资增长了50%至60%。

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